By Mike Taugher
CONTRA COSTA
TIMES
Posted on Sun, Jun. 19, 2005
Scientists are planning triage over the next four
months to examine possible explanations for a widespread
population crash among Delta fish and food organisms.
The initial research effort is not expected to solve
the mysterious ecological crisis, but is designed
instead to shorten a dauntingly long list of suspects
so that a more focused probe can begin next year.
Details of the $2 million research plan were forwarded
to Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez, who last month
demanded to know why scientists involved with the
CalFed water project did not warn of the developing
crisis and what they plan to do about it.
In response to a May 1 report in the
Contra Costa Times, Miller and 15 other congressional
representatives challenged state and federal agencies,
saying that recent developments appear to belie a
key assumption at the heart of California water policy
-- that more water can be delivered to farms and
cities without further damaging the Delta.
"We
agree that the apparent fish declines demand immediate and comprehensive study
and response," the agencies wrote back to Miller, "however,
we must emphasize that this is a new issue, not an
old problem that has been neglected."
The ecological crisis is surfacing 10 years into
an ambitious effort to tackle California's thorniest
and most politically divisive water issues by embarking
on a comprehensive effort to restore ecosystems,
boost water supplies, improve water quality and address
the Delta's fragile levees.
The
sprawling program, called CalFed, has spent $3 billion
in local, state and federal money since 2000, but
the bond funds that have kept it afloat will begin
running out in the next couple of years.
There is no plan to stabilize
CalFed's finances, and an ecological collapse in
the Delta threatens to undermine the very promise
CalFed made -- that more water can be delivered to
the Central Valley and Southern California at the
same time ecosystems are restored.
Meanwhile, plans to increase the capacity of Delta
pumps are continuing, though they have been delayed
several times, and water managers are continuing
to issue 25-year water contract renewals to Central
Valley farm districts that lock in obligations to
provide large amounts of water from the Delta.
"The data suggest that the wheels have come off the wagon and
they're running down the field full speed," Miller
said.
The agencies
wrote to Miller that they needed three years of data
before they could draw conclusions about recent ecological
trends.
When they analyzed the data
in January, the agencies confirmed a widespread,
unexplained and rapid decline in the Delta's open-water
fish populations. The agencies say that they acted
promptly after that to bring the information to government
managers and scientists.
The analyses showed the population of Delta smelt,
a little 2 1/2-inch fish that is seen as indicative
of the overall health of the Delta, is at its lowest
level ever. Tiny copepods, the key food source for
small open-water fish species, are in rapid decline,
too. Previously common threadfin shad also are disappearing.
The declines cannot be explained by the
weather -- snow and rain patterns have been moderate
-- and the crash is occurring across all of the dominant
pelagic, or open-water, fish species.
"Something has changed in the estuary to cause new conditions that are
unlike our past experiences," the agencies wrote.
Tina Swanson, a senior
scientist at the Bay Institute, said that for years
there have been clues that a crisis was coming, but
momentum to advance plans to move more water from
the Delta overrode concerns about the Delta's health.
"There was
unwillingness among some agency managers and staff to recognize the chronically
low numbers," she said. "There was probably a sincere
hope that this was a normal fluctuation. But they
didn't want to see. And if they saw, they didn't
want to talk about it, particularly at the same time
CalFed was trying to increase exports from the Delta."
The science plan notes that, "While
several of these declining species ... have shown
evidence of a long-term decline, there appears to
have been a precipitous 'step-change' to very low
abundance during 2002-2004."
It is unknown whether the drop and the
surprise with which it caught water and wildlife
agencies was due to CalFed decisions or actions.
But in the meantime, scientists are hoping to find
some solid clues to help them explain and correct
the Delta's decline before it worsens.
The prime suspects fall into three broad categories:
toxins from Central Valley pesticides, in-Delta spraying
of aquatic weeds and other sources; invasive species
that are dramatically changing the Delta ecosystem;
and pumps that send trillions of gallons each year
to the Central Valley and Southern California. Those
pumps have been running at near-record levels the
last two years.
Scientists say it is most likely that more than one
suspect is to blame.
For example, a blue-green algae called mycrocystis
aeruginosa has become more abundant in the Delta
in recent years and is now growing in clumps that
are unlike what had been seen before. Mycrocystis
produces cancer-causing toxins, and one scientist
said there is some information to suggest that the
way it grows might be affected by a certain class
of pesticide that has become popular on California
farms. Those pesticides, pyrethroids, are themselves
more toxic to fish than the organophosphate pesticides
they are replacing.
Another possibility is that attempts to
reduce pumping's effects on fish have had the unintended
effect of undermining the aquatic ecosystem. Ten
years ago, the timing of water deliveries was moved
from the spring, when pumping can destroy migrating
juvenile salmon and resident fish near the pumps,
to later in the year. That shift led water managers
to release water from upstream dams later in the
year.
The result is that
water in the summer now flows through the Delta quicker
and phytoplankton, which forms the basis of the aquatic
food web, has less time to bloom.
"We
have no shortage of possible explanations," said
Bruce Herbold, a fisheries biologist at the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency who is a member of
the team of scientists designing the investigation
into the Delta fish crash.
The plan calls for two dozen actions, including new
studies, stepped up monitoring efforts and more thorough
analysis of existing data.
Researchers plan to examine fish livers for toxins,
collect information about microcystis and examine
the use and toxicity of herbicides used by the state
Department of Boating and Waterways to control nuisance
plants.
"In my view, some of this work should have been done long ago," said
Swanson.
Herbold said the research effort is set back somewhat
because for years CalFed focused less on the aquatic
environment and more on improving water supplies
and restoring wetlands and salmon habitat.
"It's been a
frustrating experience to get CalFed to take on water quality really as a
serious issue in the same way it was taking on ecosystem restoration and water
supply," Herbold said.
"Now, we're looking at it (but) we've spent most
of CalFed's money," he said.
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